China’s steel industry appears weak on the surface, but the latest production data suggests the sector remains resilient despite slowing economic growth and continued pressure from the property market.Crude steel production reached 83.67 million tonnes in June, slightly higher than a year earlier. However, total output during the first half of 2026 declined 3% to 499.95 million tonnes, raising expectations that annual production could remain below one billion tonnes for a second consecutive year.
Steel demand continues to face challenges from falling property investment, weaker construction activity and slower vehicle sales. At the same time, stable rebar prices, manufacturing exports and the possibility of stronger economic stimulus from Beijing may support steel consumption in the coming months.Iron ore imports have delivered stronger numbers. China imported 112.69 million tonnes in June, while first-half shipments increased 6.3% year-on-year to 628.87 million tonnes.
However, high port inventories and rising global supply could limit further gains. Increased output from Australia, Brazil and Guinea’s Simandou project may place additional pressure on iron ore prices.The outlook suggests China’s steel market could strengthen with policy support, while iron ore faces growing supply-side risks.
