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The reduction in Chinese steel production will slow the growth of iron ore exports globally this year, but as long as fleet expansion stays modest, the Capesize market should be unaffected, according to analysis.
Bimco stated that until there is a significant rebound in Chinese steel output, propelled by increased exports or greater domestic demand, there won't be any appreciable expansion in the iron ore trade.
"While iron ore shipments could slow down, we still expect them to grow 1% to 2% in 2024, benefiting from a 1.7% increase in global steel demand as forecast by the World Steel Association," a shipowners group analyst said.
Key indicators point to weaker domestic demand for Chinese steel this year as the country’s property sector continues to struggle. But Bimco said that while overall domestic demand stagnates, steel demand from China’s manufacturing and infrastructure sectors could keep rising.
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